Climate change has become an internationally recognized problem. Its impacts have been acknowledged on a global scale, in a range of different sectors – agriculture being one of them. The main effects on agricultural production are expected to be increased variability, a decrease of production in certain areas and changes in geography. The global causes and effects of climate change have become very well known and will be briefly covered here. For more in-depth information on this topic, please consult separate .
General facts about global climate change
The world is warming. The world’s average temperature is rising, especially the minimum temperatures. Since the rate of change is quite slow, any differences may be virtually undetectable, even to farmers. Pests and diseases, however, may grow much quicker when a certain threshold (often unknown or difficult to measure) is crossed.
The rate of global warming is uneven due to the effect of the oceans, which absorb about 92% of the sun’s energy and then move it around through horizontal and vertical currents. There may still be many years in which average ambient temperatures do not rise significantly. Parts of the world may even experience cooler seasons, as seasonal winds shift and cause warming in another part of the world.
Global rainfall is increasing because warmer air holds more moisture. However, this does not mean that all regions will receive more rain, but rather that when it does rain, it might just rain harder. This means that soil erosion and landslides are likely to increase.
The world is experiencing more extreme weather, with areas becoming hotter, wetter, drier or even cooler. This is difficult to prove statistically, but data from scientific studies and the insurance industry show an increasing frequency of severe weather events. This means coffee farmers may experience more extreme weather, both hot and cold. The effects of weather and climate (see glossary below) on coffee operate on a range of timescales:
- Short-term events, such as tropical storms
- Mid-term events, such as El Niño and other oscillations that take months or years to play out
- Long-term weather or drier trends, which may take several years or even decades to complete a cycle
- Long-term warming, as the average world temperature is expected to continue to rise for at least 100 years
Local impacts: Although there is now a sound scientific understanding of what drives global climate change, there still remains a lack of appreciation for specific local contexts, where both the scale and impacts of climate change are very diverse and much less certain. In many cases, a lack of good climatic data from meteorological stations makes it difficult to understand how the climate is changing. An important aspect of the c&c approach is to enable informed judgments about the risks of climate change for different local contexts.
What does this mean for farmers?
Farmers are experiencing increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather and climate patterns. They can no longer expect the favorable conditions that a perennial crop like coffee needs for consecutive harvests. This has major implications on their livelihoods and strategies – should they invest more to adapt or to diversify?
There are equally serious implications for farmer support structures. The high levels of uncertainty make it difficult to give accurate advice on how to prioritize scarce resources to reduce vulnerability. The purpose of the c&c initiative is to assist support services by developing and testing techniques and tools in order to evaluate the most pressing risks of climate change and make it easier to reduce them.
Glossary of climate-related terms
Weather: Describes atmospheric conditions at a particular place in terms of air temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation.
Climate: Is often defined as the weather averaged over a long period of time (normally 30 years).
Global warming: Increase in average global temperature.
Climate change: Any significant change in climate, such as temperature or precipitation, that lasts for an extended period of time, typically decades, whether due to natural variability or human activity.
Climate variability: Refers to variations in the current state of the climate, e.g. the amount of rainfall received from year to year; also includes extended droughts, floods, and conditions that result from periodic El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO).
Regional or local warming: Can be caused by a change in land use and can exacerbate local climate conditions and extremes.
Climate hazards: The potentially damaging hydro-meteorological events or phenomena, such as increasing temperatures or changes in rainfall patterns, as well as the intensity and frequency of extreme events, like storms, floods or droughts.
Climate impact: The effects of climate change in natural or human systems.
How does climate affect coffee production?
Coffee production is highly dependent on a regular sequence of weather events. Ideal climate conditions for Arabica coffee are:
- A dry period of three months to stress trees in order for them to flower well, but not too long of a dry spell, or trees will become weak
- A good soaking to initiate flowering, but not continuous rain, as this will affect the fruit set
- Not too high a temperature, which can cause a range of physiological problems, including flower abortion
- Regular rainfall throughout the berry development stage
- A drier period coming up to harvest
- A dry period around harvest to facilitate picking and sun drying (this would be the ideal situation, but is not the case for all coffee production countries)
Alteration in precipitation patterns, temperature, storms, strong winds and other extreme weather events directly impact coffee quality and productivity levels. These potentially damaging hydrometeorological events or phenomena are called .
The effects of climate change in natural or human systems are called climate impacts. These effects can be direct (on the coffee tree) or indirect. Some potential negative climate impacts on Arabica varieties, which are particularly sensitive to climate extremes, are listed in Table 1 below.
Robusta is also affected by climate extremes, though it can tolerate higher temperatures and is more resistant to some pests and diseases. This may be one reason why the percentage of global coffee production of Robusta has risen from 20 to 40% since 1980. Robusta does however require heavier rainfall, which, because of the increased likelihood of prolonged droughts, means that irrigation is likely to become an increasingly essential requirement.
Extreme weather events over the past few years (e.g. heavy rainfall between 2009-2011 in Colombia or a drought period in 2014 in Minas Gerais, Brazil) demonstrate that there can be a substantial impact on revenues and, therefore, on the livelihoods of producers. It is possible that such events could have occurred without climate change, but it is also very likely that they have been made worse by it.
The overall result of the negative impacts of extreme weather conditions is a reduction in coffee quantity and quality, and increasing production costs due to the need for additional inputs or labor.
Table 1: Direct and indirect effects of extreme or unusual weather events on Coffee Arabica
Climate hazard | Direct impact on the tree | Indirect impact |
High temperature |
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Heavy rain, hail, strong winds |
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Intermittent and unseasonal rain |
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Prolonged rain |
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Prolonged drought |
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Categorizing responses to climate change
To visualize adaptation strategies for climate change, responses to it must be categorized according to severity and frequency of climate events (Figure 1). Farmers usually experience these as a series of shocks, rather than a slow change.
This manual deals exclusively with the top left square in Figure 1, “adaptation by new agriculture practices”, which includes any practices, strategies or measures taken in response to climate change. However, c&c also aims to develop tools for the right side of the graph, “crop substitution and diversification”, in the future.
The need for a strategic view of climate change adaptation
Climate change is a very complex issue and it is still uncertain how it will affect future production systems. Coffee production is also very intricate and varies greatly from country to country. However, the adopted production system within each region is often quite static, with only moderate changes over time. This means that coffee producers will require major investments of time and funds if they are to cope with the challenges of climate change.
The current state of knowledge on coffee and climate change suggests that supporters will need to consider more drastic changes in the future. It seems inevitable that:
- Some traditional coffee production zones will no longer be suitable for growing coffee, creating a need to find crop diversification and substitution solutions. This is already happening at the lower margins of coffee production in many countries, but is mostly poorly researched and supported.
- Other traditional areas will still be suitable for growing coffee for many years, but new agricultural practices will be necessary to adapt to climate change, and especially to extreme weather events.
- A few zones may gain climatic suitability for coffee production.
This manual deals with point 2) only; points 1) and 3) should also be considered and planned if they are to happen in a way that maximizes sustainability and minimizes damage to communities and the environment. Therefore, the systematic approach to adaptation that is presented here should be seen as just one element in a comprehensive climate change strategy, which goes beyond coffee production alone.
Definition
Climate change adaptation
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli (climate hazards) or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC Glossary)
Actions that minimize negative impacts of climate change or utilize opportunities
How can we respond to climate change?
What is climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity?
Climate change impacts are experienced locally, which means adaptation responses also have to be defined on a site or regionally specific level. Effective adaptation to climate change must be based on a thorough understanding of the vulnerability (or susceptibility) of the targeted coffee agro-ecosystem and coffee farmer communities.
The impacts of climate change on coffee production depend on how resilient (see glossary of climate-related terms on page 15) or strong a system is. A ‘system’ does not simply refer to a farm level system of production, but also to farming communities, the broader landscape and the whole supply chain, including road infrastructure, storage facilities, etc.
Therefore, adaptation strategies might focus on increasing the resilience of groups of people as well as the resilience of the agricultural systems that their livelihoods rely on. The vulnerability of both coffee agro-ecosystems and communities are, therefore, important factors when considering the effects of climate change.
Vulnerability can be defined as susceptibility to harm. Often it is depicted as the result of a number of factors (Figure 2) and can therefore be a difficult concept to use or define. The various terms are best explained by the use of an example:
A farmer may perceive that the coffee farm has an increasing exposure to coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) because of a changing climate (higher temperature and higher humidity). The coffee variety (Coffea Arabica) may be susceptible to the disease and hence has a high sensitivity. The farmer can do little to reduce exposure to the problem and instead chooses to reduce sensitivity by either applying fungicide regularly or by planting a new rust-resistant variety. The correct choice is not easy and will vary according to circumstance. If the farmer receives expert advice, increases knowledge and has sufficient funding with which to make a decision, he can be said to have a good adaptive capacity. Therefore, even though the likelihood of disease attacks continues to rise, the farmer can balance this by reducing vulnerability.
As seen in Figure 2, the climate vulnerability of a production system is a combination of the potential impacts caused by exposure and sensitivity to climate change, as well as the adaptive capacity of the system or farmer to reduce the climate risk. These factors together imply that the impact of climate in the field is a result of the relationship between hazard frequency and severity as seen in Figure 1. It should be noted that Figure 2 is a simplification of a highly complex and non-linear system that, due to many factors (including rust), can only be partially understood.
Therefore, the purpose of this manual is to assist in the increasing adaptive capacity of farmers and those who are helping them.
Adaptation options are concrete measures focused on reducing climate vulnerability and climate risk. Table 2 shows some examples of how coffee producers can respond to climate hazards previously listed in Table 1, and reduce climate risks by implementing adaptation options. Adaptation options may also include measures that respond indirectly to a given climate hazard. For example, an indirect measure could be providing training to a community on how to develop off-farm livelihood activities.
It is also important to note that the development of adaptive capacity is not simply a case of being able to recover from climate events in the short term. It is also about providing communities and individuals with the ability to adapt to changes in the environment and the possible social and economic consequences of these changes in the long term.
Guidance
- Adaptive capacity can be enhanced by increasing the resources and knowledge of farmers and by supporting individuals and organizations in responding appropriately to climate change risks.
- Adaptive capacity can be enhanced by concrete adaptation options, e.g. by training farmers on how to develop more effective irrigation and how to construct water storage systems, or indirectly by improving access to finance through low-rate loans.
Table 2: Climate hazards, vulnerabilities and some adaptation options to reduce negative impacts
Climate hazard | Direct impact on the tree | Indirect impact |
High temperature |
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Heavy rain, hail, strong winds |
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Intermittent and unseasonal rain |
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Prolonged rain |
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Prolonged drought |
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Resilience
In recent years, resilience has become a heavily used term and, like ‘sustainability’, has been used in many ways and contexts. For the purposes of this manual, resilience means the ability to respond effectively to climate change impacts, while still continuing to function at a satisfactory level. A useful definition for resilience for a coffee production system includes the :
- The amount of disruption that coffee producers can withstand while still remaining unchanged (the capacity to absorb change);
- How much coffee producers can adapt what they do in response to a changing climate (the capacity to adapt to change);
- The capacity of coffee producers to learn about what needs to be changed and how to implement these changes (the capacity to learn from experience and use new knowledge to improve future plans).
Resilience requires good collaboration (e.g. between communities, governments or businesses) as well as flexible processes to support learning from experience, which can be used in future plans (see Step 5 of the c&c approach).
How to think about adaptation
Often climate adaptation is talked about as a way of reducing vulnerability. While this can be useful, the c&c approach prefers to think of it in terms of increasing resilience and building adaptive capacity. This approach is more positive and may be easier to engage stakeholders by discussing opportunities to increase their resilience, rather than viewing them as victims of climate change. The message should be that adaptation helps farmers to be more successful coffee producers.
Terms and definitions in reference to climate change adaptation
Risk: The probability of harmful consequences or expected losses (e.g. death, injury, loss of livelihoods, reduced economic productivity, and/or environmental damage) resulting from interactions between climate hazards, exposure to these hazards and vulnerable Risk can be thought of as the interaction of hazard and vulnerability as shown in Figure 2. It is sometimes expressed as: Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability. In practice though, it is often difficult to quantify these terms to be able to use this equation in the field.
Exposure: The degree to which a system (e.g. a farm, production system or coffee plant) in a defined area is exposed to significant variations in conditions (e.g. a coffee plant that is exposed to high humidity). This is more difficult to control, but could be altered by reducing shade in some circumstances, though this would increase exposure to other weather variables.
Sensitivity: The level of tolerance in a system (e.g. a farm, production system or coffee plant) to climate variability or change. For example, a coffee plant that gets rust is highly sensitive to increased minimum temperatures and rainfall frequency at key points in its cycle. Planting a variety of plant that is less susceptible to rust infection can reduce sensitivity.
Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In coffee production, susceptibility to climate change can be increased by old tree stock, poor soils, poor knowledge, etc.
Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate variability and extremes, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences. For example, coffee farmers with high adaptive capacity may be better able to adjust their farming practices to suit drought conditions than those with low capacity. Adaptive capacity includes the practical knowledge, experience, resources and social networks of coffee farmers and extensionists.
Resilience: The ability of a system to resist, rebound or recover from the effects of a climate hazard. A resilient community of coffee farmers would be well-placed to manage hazards, to minimise their effects and/or to recover quickly from any negative impacts, resulting in a similar or improved state as compared to before the hazard occurred. There are strong linkages between resilience and adaptive capacity; consequently, resilience also varies greatly for different groups within a community.
Maladaptation: An action that may appear to be adaptive, but might actually turn out to be counterproductive. For example, coffee farmers in marginal conditions (e.g. very high temperatures or frequent droughts) may strive to adapt their coffee production methods, but might actually be helped best by developing diversification options because ambient temperatures will inevitably continue to increase.
How can coffee producers adapt to climate change?
Adaptation allows coffee producers to both reduce the negative impacts of climate change and benefit from new opportunities that might arise from it.
Adaptation for coffee production can be addressed in a number of ways, which can be categorized according to scale as outlined in Table 3.
To date, c&c has focused mainly on pilot activities at the farm and community level. The initiative recognizes that landscape issues are very important, but these need to be addressed through a larger and more scaled-up framework than has been possible. However, the five steps of the c&c approach still allow for working on these different levels of adaptation. The aim is to help stakeholders identify and implement locally appropriate adaptation options to make coffee production systems, coffee farmer households and communities more resilient, and livelihoods less vulnerable.
Table 3: Adaptation levels and options
Adaption level | Explanation | Examples of adaption options |
Plant | Actions to adapt plant to climate change |
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Field to farm | Actions to increase the resilience of the farm, mainly done through changes in the way farmers manage their production systems |
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Household and farming system | Actions to prepare the household against potential negative impacts of climate change |
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Landscape | Actions that increase the resilience of the coffee farm’s surrounding area |
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Enabling environment/ framework conditions | Actions that create and enable the operating environment of farmers or enhance the framework conditions in which farmers conduct their business |
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What is the role of stakeholders in the adaptation process?
Identifying and engaging the relevant community of interest (i.e. ‘stakeholders’) is considered key to the success of an adaptation process. Stakeholders contribute through the knowledge and skills that they bring to the process.
The more comprehensive knowledge and skills are, and the more informed the stakeholders are about the process and underlying factors, the more likely it is that the resulting adaptation decision will be successful. This includes recognizing the value of local and indigenous knowledge.
A principal goal of stakeholder engagement is to build a common understanding of the nature and scope of climate risks, as well as to align appropriate adaptation strategies that are both economically feasible and compatible with local needs and customs.
Definition
What is a stakeholder?
There are a lot of different opinions on the definition of a stakeholder, and deciding on which to use is important.
For c&c, stakeholders include farming households, local and regional coffee experts, extension workers, farm promoters, national coffee boards, representatives of governmental and non-governmental organizations, local, regional and national or even international researchers and research centers, Ministries of Agriculture and/or the Environment, producer organizations, and other actors in the private sector, like certification bodies, traders, roasters, doner organizations, banks, development agencies, etc.