Development of a c&c project pathway (theory of change)

Just as you might plan a journey with a clear final destination in mind, your project pathway should start with a desired outcome or goal.

Example: The long-term objective of the PRPR Project is that “coffee farmers are more resilient to coffee rust events and have greater capacity to adapt to climate change risks.”

This step is sometimes referred to as ‘backwards mapping’, as it requires you to identify the preconditions necessary to achieve your goal. This requires thinking in backward steps, beginning with the long-term goal and progressing to the intermediate and then early-stage outcomes and preconditions that would be required. These can be ordered sequentially, like a pathway.

Example: What are the changes that are required to achieve the PRPR Project’s goal? What are the conditions that need to be in place for change to happen?

The illustration below provides a set of example preconditions at four different levels of the PRPR Project. The logic between the levels is apparent (e.g. level 4 can be achieved if level 3 is in place, level 3 is achieved if level 2 is in place and so on, working backwards from the project’s goal). Figure 17 shows that the full project pathway is comprised of a more complex set of outcomes and preconditions.

It is inevitable that you will have made assumptions in your backwards mapping about how and why each level informs the next. Since the future is inherently uncertain, it is important to record these assumptions in order to check if they are still appropriate during the course of implementation.

You may find it useful to think in terms of the criteria for selecting adaptation options (see Step 3):

• Acceptability
• Feasibility
• Effectiveness
• Affordability/cost
• Timing/urgency

In addition to the assumptions in the pathway, there is also a section for noting assumptions in the M&E plan (see Section 2, Step 5).

Example: Based on two of the connected outcomes below, here are some examples of assumptions in the project pathway of the PRPR Project: “A microloan scheme to provide access to funds for materials” should support “the distribution of seedlings at subsidized rate” and also improve “access to the materials and equipment required for preventing rust”. Assumptions made here might include the following:

• A loan scheme is culturally acceptable
• The interest rates are set at an appropriate level and do not increase
• Vulnerable farmers (with no assets or with a poor credit history) can access these loans
• The subsidized rate for seedlings is affordable

The next step is to identify indicators that determine whether these different outcomes are being achieved. The monitoring of progress is reliant on a selection of indicators that can accurately represent changes. Look at each outcome individually and consider how you might measure progress in achieving each of these. More detailed guidance on developing indicators can be found in the M&E section on page 79. Table 13 shows some example indicators for the PRPR Project.

It is also possible to use more general indicators, such as household income or percentage of rust incidences in the region. While these indicators are useful, however, it is more difficult to attribute general indicators solely to the implementation of adaptation options, especially given the long timeframe associated with climate change.

For example, a record of no rust incidents recorded for three years is not necessarily a result of adaptation measures that have been implemented. Similarly, if a rust outbreak does occur, it is not an automatic sign that the adaptation measures have failed. In this case, it would perhaps be better to measure financial losses resulting from a rust outbreak relative to other communities that have not implemented adaptation options.

Once all steps have been completed, put them together into a single diagram. This does not have to be a work of art; a flipchart diagram as part of the planning process will suffice. Perhaps take a photo for future reference. Remember that the project pathway will need to be updated throughout the implementation of adaptation options. There may be clear points at which to do this, e.g. midway through the project or after a particular phase has been completed.