An important step in gathering scientific information is to access meteorological data and, if possible, to approach any local meteorological institutes. Local research institutions or coffee umbrella organizations may also have relevant data.

Meteorological data are often presented as a set of averages, but for the purposes of farming, it is actually more important to have the extreme values (e.g. maximum and minimum temperatures). That said, some countries have daily records available, which allows for more analyses of raw data by those with corresponding skills and experience. For example, by interpreting meteorological information and putting it into a specific format, such as climate maps or climate models, such information can easily be presented to outside audiences (see “Learning from experience: Climate maps for stakeholder use” on page 44).

It is important to look for extreme temperature values and determine if they are becoming either more extreme or more frequent. In addition, make sure to look at the timing and intensity of rainfall. Although there may be no indication of changes in annual rainfall, there could be signs of more intermittent rainfall or changes in the onset or end of the rainy season. Where possible, seek the assistance of a meteorologist.

Keep in mind that other organizations may have already conducted similar research. Therefore, it is also helpful to consult government officials and research organizations or NGOs in your region.

There is an increasing number of climate models that project changes in temperature and precipitation for the coming years – as far into the future as 2100. These models can give you a rough idea of future climate change, but are still very uncertain in terms of future levels of greenhouse gas emissions (which will influence the scale and speed of changes projected), interpretations of atmospheric and earth systems (which can also lead to different projections), and interpretations of future risks and hazards.

If you need to choose from a number of projections on which to base your work, it is important to understand how they were created and to determine if they feature a range of models and scenarios. Where possible, seek expert advice when choosing which projections you will use – for example, from the meteorological office. Different models tend to agree on some changes more than others. For example, virtually all models predict an increase in temperature, but they often have conflicting predictions for the rate of this increase. There are also generally great differences in predictions of rainfall. In order to show these differences and uncertainties, models will often present a range of possible future outcomes. For example, a projected 3°C temperature increase by 2050 may come with an uncertainty range of 1.5°C to 5°C; average rainfall projections for a region may be negative, but the uncertainty range can be from 20-50%. Projections for extreme weather events are usually even more uncertain.

Climate projections are often only available at the regional or national level, and may not provide the specific detail required at the local level. However, if used correctly, they can still be a valuable source of information for future trends in a given area. At the very least, they can be used to visualize climate change and can thus support in creating awareness among stakeholders.

Unfortunately, in many coffee-producing countries, good meteorological data can be scarce and research stations few; historical data can often be incomplete – especially at the local level. If that is the case, consult local historians, anthropologists and other experts, either professional or amateur, in addition to consulting the Internet.

• The historical record: Coffee production often has a long and rich history. Reports from research stations and commodity boards may offer useful information, and careful analysis of this material can often reveal evidence about past climatic events, as well as changes in land use and production levels. Other official bodies, including government departments for rural affairs or civil work, as well as NGOs, may also have useful archives.
• Private data: Some larger coffee plantations may have records that go back for decades, and some may even have meteorological data.
• Public data: Newspaper archives can be a rich source of information about past extreme weather events and may even include specific meteorological information.

All of the sources above are likely to provide some useful data, which can together provide a comprehensive assessment of past climate change. However, data will take time and resources to collect. If scientific information is not available and further studies cannot be conducted, be sure to thoroughly analyze the information that is collected from farmers and stakeholders.

Objectives

• To know and understand how the climate will change in a region and how this will impact the population and agricultural production.
• To collect information on current and projected climate change, including changes in temperature, rainfall, extreme weather events and any other important phenomena based on scientific sources online.
• To summarize, analyze and interpret this scientific information.

Expected outputs

• A list of available documents, studies and reports.
• A summary of available information on climate change in a specific country and coffee production region, and possible impacts on the coffee production.

Required time

One to two weeks, depending on the availability of data and the existing knowledge of the researcher.