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Assessment of climate change challenges

Intro

Step 2 is the core step of the c&c approach. It is in this step that you will learn about climate change and assess the current climatic risks and impacts on-site. It requires you to combine scientific evidence with local experience and know-how to form a deeper understanding about climate-related impacts and adaptation needs. In this step, coffee farmers and stakeholders embark on a participatory process to explore and learn about climate change adaptation and its relation to existing farming practices. This builds on the initial understanding that was established in Step 1.

Objectives

  • To assess climate change-related risks and site-specific impacts for coffee production and the livelihoods of coffee farmers
  • To identify possible adaptation options

Guiding Questions

  • How does climate change affect coffee production?
  • How do I obtain relevant information from different sources?
  • Which stakeholders should I address to collect information?
  • How do I analyze information from different sources? What are the possible adaptation options? Where can I get information about these options?

Required Time

Two to three months

What happens in Step 2

This risk assessment answers two key questions:

  • How does climate change affect coffee production, coffee farmers and their families in a specific area?
  • What can we do on farms to make coffee production systems more resilient?

Note that the focus here is at the farm level. This does not mean that larger scale landscape issues are not important (information should be collected about these wherever possible), but simply that climate impact on farms is the initial priority.

Step 2 consists of an assessment of short and long-term climate change risks that is carried out through a combination of a desk study and dialogue with all of those involved. In the desk study, look at existing scientific information and data, as well as other relevant information concerning climate change adaptation in the coffee sector. This should be weighed against perceptions, observations and knowledge attained through interviews and meetings with coffee farmers and local experts, or ‘stakeholders’ (researchers, staff of private companies, extensionists from national coffee institutes and NGOs, etc.).

To collect information from all sources, you can use the triangulation methodology (Figure 7 and Table 6). This entails collecting information from a wide range of sources, including qualitative and quantitative data from farmers, interest groups and science, and identifying the similarities and differences between sources.

Farmers are an essential source of information, as they know best about local farming conditions and challenges. They will have a good sense of how the climate is changing and what the impacts of these changes on production are. Furthermore, they may already be adapting their production processes in response to these impacts. Even if an adaptation technique is not effective, it demonstrates a significant issue that the farmer is trying to resolve.

Local experts – most often extensionists, but also traders and other stakeholders – have in-depth knowledge and experience of the local situation and the resulting difficulties for coffee farming, and can provide important knowledge about adaptation options. They may also have seen adaptation measures that have worked elsewhere.

Review existing scientific research and information and build upon the sources that were identified in Step 1. These may include climate observations (trends in past data, e.g. maximum daily temperature during flowering season) and projections (future changes in climate). Look also at the history of climate hazards and their impacts (e.g. what happened to fields during the last drought?). Analyze these scientific data alongside the results from farmer and stakeholder consultations. A direct exchange with staff at local research institutions is, of course, also advantageous.

Working on the topic of climate change means working in an environment of uncertainty. There is a lack of measured evidence and the shape of future climate patterns is unknown. Therefore, any information that overlaps between sources will provide the strongest outlook on likely climate hazards and generate the best preliminary options for adaptation.

Organize the inputs you collect through the triangulation methodology into a report to provide an overview of climate hazards, impacts and a preliminary list of potential options for adaptation.

Figure 7: Triangulation methodology
a diagram showing the relationship between farmers , scientists , and extensionists .

Results of Step 2

After working through this step, you will have the following:

  • An assessment of climate-related risks for coffee production systems and the livelihoods of coffee farmers
  • A prioritization of adaptation needs
  • An identified list of potential options for adaptation

Depending on available resources and local needs, this can be shown in a comprehensive table or a more detailed report.

Additionally, throughout the data collection process, stakeholders and farmers in the region should be educated on climate change issues in order for them to become part of the adaptation work process in the beginning. This fosters ownership and is likely to increase uptake and involvement in the delivery of adaptation measures.