Analyze and consolidate information

If all three sources coincide with the finding, it can be considered very reliable and you can assume it will serve as a good base for identifying suitable adaptation options. If there are discrepancies amongst the three sources, further analysis and studies might be required.

Prepare a first draft of information that provides a good overview of the results from all three sources, which can then be discussed by all relevant parties.

It is also useful to summarize and list climate problems (including hazards, impacts and causes of vulnerability), as well as potential solutions in a structured table14, see below. Depending on your needs, it might be useful to write a detailed synopsis report.

Objectives

• To compare the information on current climate change provided by scientific sources, farmers and other stakeholders in order to identify consistency in climate hazards and impacts.
• To identify and prioritize climate hazards and impact on local coffee production.
• To identify potential options for adaptation.

Guiding questions for assessment of climate change impacts and identification of adaptation options

• What aspects of climate are affecting farmers most (e.g. direct effects of high temperatures or drought, or indirect effects of high disease caused by unusual weather)?
• Does information on past climate variability or past weather extremes indicate potential vulnerability to climate change?
• Is there overlap between what farmers, extensionists and science say about climate-related issues?
• Who is most affected by the variability in climate (consider the different roles of men and women)?
• What other problems are farmers facing (e.g. putting less effort into coffee production in order to concentrate on subsistence crop problems)?
• How might future climate change affect decisions and the urgency to make them (e.g. how close are you to critical thresholds such as maximum temperatures)?
• Based on the triangulation process, will the project be mostly about an immediate response to a specific problem, or a more general response to long-term change?
• If farmers are already trying adaptation methods, is it possible at this stage to judge their usefulness?

Objectives

To assess climate change and identify climate hazards and impacts adaptation tools to reduce potential climate impacts.

Expected outputs

A climate risk assessment of climate hazards and related impacts on coffee production.

Procedure

• Compile and systematize the information gathered from farmers, stakeholders and science.
• Create an overview. It may be useful to put all information in a table. Be sure also to consider if and how the impacts affect men and women.
• A hazard ranking will help you prioritize key issues that require measures for adaptation (see Table 25).
• Hazard ranking can come from prominence of mention by farmers and a voting system for extensionists at a workshop. If possible, scientific information should be derived from local climate data, but there is often a lack of it. In the case above, it is hardly needed because there is a very wide agreement that rainfall is getting heavier. Where data and knowledge about this is lacking, a climatologist or related expert may need to be consulted.
• Prioritize main problems by simply adding scores from farmers and extensionists to the highest scores. Overall priority is decided by the field team; in many cases it should be quite clear what the main problems are. Where there is conflict between sources, further discussion with farmers and extensionists may be necessary. When in doubt, it should usually be farmers who have the last word.

Objectives

• To identify adaptation options for reducing potential climate impacts.
• To include and engage local stakeholders.
• To raise the awareness of farmers and reflect on risk assessment results.

Expected output

A shortlist of potential adaptation options to be used in preparing an operational plan (Step 3) and for validating and/or implementing (Step 4).

Procedure

• It is a good idea to first identify as many different options as possible (see “Finding adaptation options” below). Sometimes tools that do not initially seem useful can end up being the preferred solution after further thought and modification.
• At this stage, it may be useful to summarize and tabulate climate problems and potential solutions (see Table 27).
• Prepare a table of hazards and possible adaptation options with priority rankings for future reference (see Table 28).
• Avoid making judgments on the quality or likely effectiveness of adaptation options at this stage; evaluating options is a separate exercise (Step 3) and should be based explicitly on criteria derived from adaptation objectives.
• Expand on potential adaptation measures based on local knowledge and experience and create a list of them.
• In addition to listing adaptation options, consider also the consequences for men and women.

The c&c toolbox presents generic adaptation options. The word ‘generic’ is used because, although they may work in some circumstances, these tools are not universally applicable and will most likely need modification to suit local conditions. They must also be adapted to suit the coffee system, rather than adapting the coffee system to suit the tools.

• Example: Increasing shade may protect against high temperatures, but in humid conditions, it may increase the likelihood of a disease such as American Leaf Spot.

Locally sourced adaptation options: Farmers have always been innovative. Throughout the history of agriculture, they have been the main source of ideas and experimentation. Therefore, it is likely that some farmers in a particular area have developed new tools or methods or new variants of existing tools that have great potential.

• Example: In Brazil, c&c have been testing a Brachiaria grass as mulch with Gypsum soil treatments, both developed locally by farmers.

Therefore, it is helpful to look at what farmers have already been doing to adapt to climate change, and concentrate searches more on lower altitude coffee, which is most likely to have been already affected by climate change.

Training of field staff may be necessary in order for them to look objectively at the adaptation efforts of farmers. Orientation can ensure that they record new methods, photograph them and fix their locality with Global Positioning System (GPS).

• Example: Shade trees can provide a range of benefits for coffee, but there are downsides.

Ideally, large and multi-year trials of a range of tree species should be tested for their utility under local conditions, but this would take many years to perform. Instead, seek to find field examples of coffee performing well under shade in extreme conditions and study them as proxies for long-term experimentation.

Expected outputs

• Table 28 summarizes the findings of the assessment phase in a comprehensive manner and is a good preparatory step for starting adaptation planning (Step 3).
• Depending on particular needs and framework conditions, it might be suitable to write a more detailed synopsis report.

Required time

One week for staff leader to systematize collected information and one day for extensionists.

Procedure

Staff leader and extensionists systematize the collected information in a working session.

Adaptation options can be identified from the following:

• Brainstorming sessions: Invite stakeholders and experts to think about each impact and consider them from different perspectives. Categories outlined in Table 27 may be helpful to produce a wide range of options. Be gender inclusive as you draw the list of invitees to ensure that the views of both men and women are collected. Experts should be from various fields, including gender studies.
• Past experience of how weather events and other disruptions were dealt with.
• Options that were considered and previously rejected or not studied thoroughly.
• Outliers: Farmers in the region who have coped well with previous events or who have had particularly bad experiences with climate change.